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Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts

Thursday, March 17, 2022

Ukraine Humanitarian Aid - Berlin Airlift Style?


I've got to admit that I'm worrying a lot about the situation in Ukraine. I get the feeling that a lot of other people are also. I wake up in the middle of the night thinking about the situation. The world has been in similar situations throughout history where a powerful country has abused its power and all of the other countries stood by and did not take action to protect the weaker country or population. I believe that prior to World War II, almost everyone knew that Hitler was abusing the Jews, but not many knew about the Holocaust it was. I have often wondered that if the people of the US knew more about what Hitler was doing, would we have entered the war earlier? Would we have done more to stop the killing? Or would we have just said: "It's not our problem!" In the case of Ukraine, we know what Putin is doing. He is trying to kill all Ukrainians and destroy all of their infrastructures. He does not appear to have a quick plan to take over the country.  

However, I have the feeling that Putin has been a couple of moves ahead of the West concerning Ukraine. But since Russia has asked for help from Syria and China, maybe things are changing, and the West has a chance to get caught up.

When Russian forces began to mass along the Ukrainian border, the West seemed to do nothing! I believe Putin did it slow and methodical and declared it an exercise to wait and see what the West would do. If we took action, he may have stopped the exercise. The US and maybe some allies as well should have moved at least a carrier battle group into the Black Sea. We have a few cruisers there, but it isn't significant. A battle group would be a symbolic move that would show that the West was going to be ready. In addition, we could have at least had agreements to equip Ukraine's Air Force with additional aircraft, and announced plans to install more sophisticated anti-air & missile systems. It is much harder to do all of those things after the fighting started.

Putin has also been very good at drawing "red lines" that if the West crosses, will start World War III. Putin has also been acting a little "crazy" -- which would be necessary to make the West believe he would do it -- since a sane person would never do that. I think it is an act to enhance his "poker hand." In fact, President Biden has stated that he doesn't want to start WW III as a reason for not providing more support for Ukraine. So he must believe Putin. The West, in turn, has not drawn similar "red lines" for Putin.

It is clear that Putin has given up hope of a quick victory, and is now digging in and trying to just simply destroy all of Ukraine's infrastructure. As part of that, he is committing war crimes by targeting civilians and civilian structures. He is also establishing a siege around all of the cities he has taken and is not allowing any food, water, or supplies to get in or letting refugees out. When Putin starts his attack on Kyiv and a siege there, the humanitarian disaster will be magnified many times. I think the US, NATO, and EU should start drawing some red lines and do some serious planning for an airlift to Kyiv similar to the Berlin Airlift. It may be needed during the next few weeks!
What "red lines" should we draw?
1. If Putin continues to target civilians, and destroy infrastructure, the West will increase sanctions further
2. All participants in the indiscriminate bombing, shelling, and missiles shall be charged as war criminals, and will be treated accordingly.
3. If a country, such as Syria or China helps by providing arms or soldiers to Russia, they will also be subject to increasing sanctions
4. The current sanctions will continue until Russia has paid for Ukraine to rebuild its infrastructure. 50% of all revenue Russia will earn in the future from oil and gas exports will go to rebuild Ukraine.
5. If Russia continues, we will blockade the Bosphorous and not allow any cargo to or from Russia to pass through.
6. Finally, if Russia attacks Kyiv and continues indiscriminate bombing and shelling there, the West will establish a protected corridor from the Ukraine border to Sikorsky airport in Kyiv and will protect the corridor and airport with modern anti-air and anti-missile equipment. Then that corridor will be available for humanitarian assistance.

When I was a teenager living in the Washington DC area, I was very concerned about nuclear war. I helped my father build our family fallout shelter and keep it stocked and ready. We had exercises at school where we got under our desks. All of that helped keep the tension and worry-level high. In the Air Force, I ran a Minuteman Missile Test Facility at Hill Air Force Base that had full-size mock-ups of two models of launch control facilities and launch facilities (missile silos and dummy missiles). I also knew a lot of officers who served as launch officers and figured that I would probably be assigned as one as well. So I believe I have a good understanding of nuclear war. I understand the threats that Putin is making and the risks involved. But I believe the US should step up in this situation and provide more than material support to Ukraine.

Sunday, February 27, 2022

Russian Invasion of Ukraine -- Cyber & Drones?

Russia did a slow, methodical build-up of troops and equipment along the Ukraine border with Russia and Belarus that seemed to take at least 6 weeks. I would assume the US knew this was happening in November or December. I completly doubt that anyone in the US Government, or military really believed that Russia was just doing this as an "exercise." I believe Putin was "testing the waters" to see what sort of reaction he woud get from the US and NATO. The US and NATO could have (and I believe SHOULD HAVE) responded in force by deploying massive amounts of troops, weapon systems, and aircraft in the nearby countries, such as Poland. Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary. The US and NATO has not done such an exercise for decades. NATO should have also set up medical centers and refugee processing centers in advance. I'm not sure why the US wouldn't our couldn't establish a no fly zone over Ukraine. We have done it in other parts of the world that were not part of NATO. I just finished reading the fall edition of Air Force Magazine. As retired USAF, I was very interested in the articles describing the space force, Cyber warfare, and drone modernization. I hope the US Cyber experts were attacking the Russian forces in some way to cause chaos. I'd think that the space force would be working to turn off or jam the Russian GPS system and space communication. I also would think that we would be able to use or help the Ukranians use drones to decimate the Russian tank force. On 60 minutes tonight there was an episode that talked about "The Grid" and it said that Russians had the power to damage our electrical grid. We've heard that they also have the ability to damage the Ukranian's "grid" -- I wonder if the US has done the same to the Russian grid? After all, Russia and Russian trolls interfered with US elections on multiple occasions

Tuesday, February 15, 2022

Reasonable solution to the Russia-Ukraine situation

For decades, everyone has been awqare that Russia wants a warm-water seaport with land access. That is why Russia took Crimea. Now they only want a "land bridge" to get there. It would seem that a 99-year land lease of a path along the border from Russia to Crimea would be a simple thing to negotiate. A fair price might be denominated in barrels of oil to eliminate the risk of currency inflation during that period. I wonder if the idea is on the table?

Sunday, September 1, 2013

U.S.-Russia feud over Snowden cuts both ways - latimes.com

I found this article to be very enlightening!  I wondered why Russia agreed to allow Snowden to stay there.  Now I completely understand!

U.S.-Russia feud over Snowden cuts both ways - latimes.com:

Why would Russia send Snowden back to us, when we don't do the same thing for them!  In addition we grab their citizens from other countries and try them for offenses.  I wonder if those Russian citizens actually received a fair trial in the US?  Will require some additional research, I suppose.

Many people say Snowden was a hero --but I think most Americans believe he was a traitor.  He did expose some questionable practices within NSA.  I think if he wanted to take his concern through the proper channels, he probably would have been thrown in jail for a long time --even if the information didn't make it to the public.

I hate seeing classified information be released without careful thought.  Snowden's release was disastrous!  There really needs to be an agency where citizens can take such complaints and know that they would be handled fairly.  Would he take it to Congress?  A Judge?  The Attorney General?  Where would a person with a concern like that go?  Certainly not to his company management, and not to his "customer" at NSA.