Ukraine Humanitarian Aid - Berlin Airlift Style?

I've got to admit that I'm worrying a lot about the situation in Ukraine. I get the feeling that a lot of other people are also. I wake up in the middle of the night thinking about the situation. The world has been in similar situations throughout history where a powerful country has abused its power and all of the other countries stood by and did not take action to protect the weaker country or population. I believe that prior to World War II, almost everyone knew that Hitler was abusing the Jews, but not many knew about the Holocaust it was. I have often wondered that if the people of the US knew more about what Hitler was doing, would we have entered the war earlier? Would we have done more to stop the killing? Or would we have just said: "It's not our problem!" In the case of Ukraine, we know what Putin is doing. He is trying to kill all Ukrainians and destroy all of their infrastructures. He does not appear to have a quick plan to take over the country.  

However, I have the feeling that Putin has been a couple of moves ahead of the West concerning Ukraine. But since Russia has asked for help from Syria and China, maybe things are changing, and the West has a chance to get caught up.

When Russian forces began to mass along the Ukrainian border, the West seemed to do nothing! I believe Putin did it slow and methodical and declared it an exercise to wait and see what the West would do. If we took action, he may have stopped the exercise. The US and maybe some allies as well should have moved at least a carrier battle group into the Black Sea. We have a few cruisers there, but it isn't significant. A battle group would be a symbolic move that would show that the West was going to be ready. In addition, we could have at least had agreements to equip Ukraine's Air Force with additional aircraft, and announced plans to install more sophisticated anti-air & missile systems. It is much harder to do all of those things after the fighting started.

Putin has also been very good at drawing "red lines" that if the West crosses, will start World War III. Putin has also been acting a little "crazy" -- which would be necessary to make the West believe he would do it -- since a sane person would never do that. I think it is an act to enhance his "poker hand." In fact, President Biden has stated that he doesn't want to start WW III as a reason for not providing more support for Ukraine. So he must believe Putin. The West, in turn, has not drawn similar "red lines" for Putin.

It is clear that Putin has given up hope of a quick victory, and is now digging in and trying to just simply destroy all of Ukraine's infrastructure. As part of that, he is committing war crimes by targeting civilians and civilian structures. He is also establishing a siege around all of the cities he has taken and is not allowing any food, water, or supplies to get in or letting refugees out. When Putin starts his attack on Kyiv and a siege there, the humanitarian disaster will be magnified many times. I think the US, NATO, and EU should start drawing some red lines and do some serious planning for an airlift to Kyiv similar to the Berlin Airlift. It may be needed during the next few weeks!
What "red lines" should we draw?
1. If Putin continues to target civilians, and destroy infrastructure, the West will increase sanctions further
2. All participants in the indiscriminate bombing, shelling, and missiles shall be charged as war criminals, and will be treated accordingly.
3. If a country, such as Syria or China helps by providing arms or soldiers to Russia, they will also be subject to increasing sanctions
4. The current sanctions will continue until Russia has paid for Ukraine to rebuild its infrastructure. 50% of all revenue Russia will earn in the future from oil and gas exports will go to rebuild Ukraine.
5. If Russia continues, we will blockade the Bosphorous and not allow any cargo to or from Russia to pass through.
6. Finally, if Russia attacks Kyiv and continues indiscriminate bombing and shelling there, the West will establish a protected corridor from the Ukraine border to Sikorsky airport in Kyiv and will protect the corridor and airport with modern anti-air and anti-missile equipment. Then that corridor will be available for humanitarian assistance.

When I was a teenager living in the Washington DC area, I was very concerned about nuclear war. I helped my father build our family fallout shelter and keep it stocked and ready. We had exercises at school where we got under our desks. All of that helped keep the tension and worry-level high. In the Air Force, I ran a Minuteman Missile Test Facility at Hill Air Force Base that had full-size mock-ups of two models of launch control facilities and launch facilities (missile silos and dummy missiles). I also knew a lot of officers who served as launch officers and figured that I would probably be assigned as one as well. So I believe I have a good understanding of nuclear war. I understand the threats that Putin is making and the risks involved. But I believe the US should step up in this situation and provide more than material support to Ukraine.

Delay the return to the office -- save fuel!

 Because of the war in Ukraine, the supply of oil and gasoline is momentarily disrupted and is driving up prices.  At the same time many businesses are pushing to bring their employees back to the office after two years of "virtual" offices.   If the business could delay that return to the office for just a few months, it could reduce the gas consumption caused by commuting and help hold the gas prices down until the supply chain gets a chance to rebalance. We're all in the habit of working from home so it won't be disruptive to continue it a while.   Suggest that President Biden talk to businesses and maybe ask them to postpone the return to the office for the next three months. 

We have got to make Putin worry more

It doesn't seem from today's news that Vladimir Putin is going to stop his invasion of Ukraine. I think the US and NATO needs to increase sanctions even further as soon as possible. If we wait too long, more lives will be lost and possibly a nuclear power plant disaster will occur. What can we do to make Putin worry more?

Executive Order 11905 signed in February 1976 by Gerald Ford banned the US from assassinating foreign leaders. EO12036 signed by Carter in January 1978 and EO12333 signed by Regan in 1981 reinforced that position. Russian History shows a tradition of the assassination of their own leaders and those abroad. Vladimir Putin has ordered hundreds of assassinations of political enemies. Yet even now as he threatens Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his family, Putin can feel safe knowing that the US would never try to do the same to him. I believe Joe Biden should amend the existing EO12333 to make an exception: If Putin assassinated Zelenskyy or his family, he will be considered to be "fair game" from the US for the rest of his life.

Yesterday, Putin declared that the Western-imposed sanctions are a "declaration of war." He used a similar argument against the US declaring Ukraine a "no-fly zone" If Putin already considers war declared by the West (as opposed to his undeclared war on Ukraine) then what is stopping us from going ahead with a no-fly zone? Putin's long caravan of tanks on highways should be an easy target. NATO should also consider a blockade of all vessels going to or from Russia or Ukraine from traveling from the Black Sea through the Bosphorus Straits to the Mediterranean.

Russian Invasion of Ukraine -- Cyber & Drones?

Russia did a slow, methodical build-up of troops and equipment along the Ukraine border with Russia and Belarus that seemed to take at least 6 weeks. I would assume the US knew this was happening in November or December. I completly doubt that anyone in the US Government, or military really believed that Russia was just doing this as an "exercise." I believe Putin was "testing the waters" to see what sort of reaction he woud get from the US and NATO. The US and NATO could have (and I believe SHOULD HAVE) responded in force by deploying massive amounts of troops, weapon systems, and aircraft in the nearby countries, such as Poland. Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary. The US and NATO has not done such an exercise for decades. NATO should have also set up medical centers and refugee processing centers in advance. I'm not sure why the US wouldn't our couldn't establish a no fly zone over Ukraine. We have done it in other parts of the world that were not part of NATO. I just finished reading the fall edition of Air Force Magazine. As retired USAF, I was very interested in the articles describing the space force, Cyber warfare, and drone modernization. I hope the US Cyber experts were attacking the Russian forces in some way to cause chaos. I'd think that the space force would be working to turn off or jam the Russian GPS system and space communication. I also would think that we would be able to use or help the Ukranians use drones to decimate the Russian tank force. On 60 minutes tonight there was an episode that talked about "The Grid" and it said that Russians had the power to damage our electrical grid. We've heard that they also have the ability to damage the Ukranian's "grid" -- I wonder if the US has done the same to the Russian grid? After all, Russia and Russian trolls interfered with US elections on multiple occasions

Reasonable solution to the Russia-Ukraine situation

For decades, everyone has been awqare that Russia wants a warm-water seaport with land access. That is why Russia took Crimea. Now they only want a "land bridge" to get there. It would seem that a 99-year land lease of a path along the border from Russia to Crimea would be a simple thing to negotiate. A fair price might be denominated in barrels of oil to eliminate the risk of currency inflation during that period. I wonder if the idea is on the table?

Air Safety and the 5G Rollout? Poor Planning? Or Airline industry CYA?

The Union-Tribune reported this morning an Associated Press column that the mobile phone industry rejected the request from the airline industry to delay the 5G rollout. The planning and design efforts for 5G cellular service started many years ago starting in 2013. The airline industry knew this. My understanding is that the millimeter wave 5G band is well above the frequencies where the airline radar altimeters operate. I also believe that the radar altimeters are a backup capability and are only relied upon when there is a problem with the normal landing system. The airline industry --both the manufacturers and airlines had plenty of time to not only test their devices against mock-ups of mobile phone towers, but apparently did nothing. Now, after the phone carriers invested heavily in buying the bandwidth, and installing hardward all over the country, they are complaining about the risk to flight from the phone towers near airport landing paths. They do not seem to be conducting any tests. In 2019 Korea went active with 5G service and many other countries have also. Did the airlines fly any tests against those systems? I believe this situation is a failure of the airline industry, the mobile phone industry, and the Federal Government -- FCC and FAA. I think if interference is found, it can be mitigated with better RF filters on the mobile phone tower transmitters and the radar altimeter receivers. There are also operational work-arounds, such as reducing the permitted tower antenna patterns around airport landing patterns. Meanwhile, I think the airline industry is just trying to "cover their ass" CYA in case there is some sort of an accident. They were asking for a "short delay" in 5G rollout -- but why a month or so now after not doing anything for 8 years?