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Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Plan for high-speed rail more realistic and pricey

Plan for high-speed rail more realistic and pricey:

I agree, we have to prioritize what we spend on. I do have mixed emotions on high speed rail. I'm astounded at the cost projections for this project. However I'm also astounded at the costs of our new aerospace systems.
  • $70B for 173 F-22s --which may or may not see actual air-to-air combat against peers.
  • $1 Trillion to own and operate the fleet of F35s (see this WSJ article).
  • I know you are aware of the breathtaking costs of our new space systems.
Much of the cost of our high speed rail is in buying and preparing rights-of-way. Once the Government owns the rights-of-way, it becomes an asset to the taxpayer. New aircraft depreciate, and only resemble an asset if they help us win a war. The cost and value of the rail right-of-way land is only going to go up. If we are ever going to build a high speed rail, it seems that it would be better to buy that land now, rather than later, when there is even more development to relocate. When the Washington beltway was built it cost $1 Million/mile. Now sound walls on one side of a freeway cost more than $1 Million/mile. When the Century Freeway in LA was built the 17 miles cost $2.3 Billion ($135 M/mile). An expansion of 30 miles of I-5 here in San Diego is proposed to cost only $4.5 Billion ($150 M/mile). In comparison, the high speed rail is roughly an 800 Mile project at $100B --$125 Million/mile. It's in the "ballpark."
Yes, the high speed rail may not have a good return on investment (ROI) in comparison with other business endeavors. However airports and freeways don't necessarily have good ROIs either, if based only on revenue earned by landing fees and freeway tolls. There are other ways of evaluating ROI for transportation projects: See this.
I'm in favor of a "slow and steady" approach to improving our transportation infrastructure. We need a vision of where we're going, and a plan to get there. However we don't need to rush into it. We can spread this project over 30 to 50 years, if necessary - no time pressure.

The public voted for high speed rail. Diane Harkey, the State Representative of our area is continually pushing to kill it and other similar ones. I know that if her right-wingers were in power, the first thing they'd do is push through this sort of project, and propose large bond issuance.

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